European elections | Who will clinch the third seat?

100 days before MEP elections, what are the chances of the crop of MEP candidates currently on offer? From the current crop of candidates, Alfred Sant, Miriam Dalli, Roberta Metsola and David Casa are widely seen as sure bets in their respective parties. This leaves room for intense competition for the other two seats on offer.

This report appeared on MaltaToday on Sunday on 23 February, on page 5

Nationalist Party | Labour Party | Alternattiva Demokratika

Roberta Metsola

She took Simon Busuttil's place in April 2013, since then distinguishing  herself as a technically prepared MEP, outshining Labour's incumbents and her own colleague David Casa. Insiders say she is the party's front-runner in these elections.

Strengths

Power of incumbency, prominent on immigration and asylum, despite being elected a year ago mepranking.eu ranks her the second most active Maltese MEP after Casa. Her specialisation in European law and experience as legal attaché in the Maltese permanent representation to the EU are assets.

Weaknesses

Failed to secure election in the first two appointments, may lack appeal among diehards even though her reputation was enhanced by her visibility during the citizenship controversy. Her lobbying on the EP motion may alienate M.O.R. voters who think the Nationalist MEPs went overboard on citizenship.

David Casa

Elected since 2004, Casa is the PN's other sure bet. Despite his poor showing in the 2013 general elections, he has a prominent role as head of the PN delegation to the EP and he took an active part lobbying other MEPs on the aborted pushback of migrants and the sale of citizenship.

Strengths

Hawkish, he has strong appeal among party diehards. As a twice-serving MEP, he has also built contacts and has gained valuable experience in the workings of the parliament.

Weaknesses

His star is waning, after failing to get elected in 2013. Too tribal and partisan in his appeal, coming across as a firebrand bent on using his seat to the full advantage to his party in Malta. This may diminish his wider appeal and forestall the party's efforts to win over switchers who deserted the party in the last election.

Francis Zammit Dimech 

Veteran MEP, former minister and leadership contestant has a fighting chance for the third seat with the right media exposure.

Eloquent and with a strong support at constituency level, he has been elected in all elections since 1987. His gift of the gab and intellectual clout put him at home in European politics.

But running for MEP might be another vanity trip after his second, miserable failure in the PN's leadership bid. FZD's appeal is restricted to the party's core vote and he is not remembered for being a particularly energetic minister.

Norman Vella

Former broadcaster now turned PN politico, Norman Vella is a household name having dominated the airwaves in the months before the general election. His outside chance for the third seat comes thanks his hawkish anti-Labour stance, even if he is a turn-off for M.O.R. voters from the PN.

An overzealous police forced that tried to nail him for snapping mobile phone photos of the PM's staff inside the airport, allowed him to project himself as the victim of an overzealous police force. Media-savvy and with a mouth that goes along with it, his candidature seals his political allegiance with the PN and casts a shadow on his 'journalistic' past. Lacks any professional training related to EU issues.

Therese Comodini Cachia

Another realistic third seat candidate, the human rights lawyer is a moderate with cross-party appeal. She took 846 votes in her first outing in the general elections, surpassing sitting MEP David Casa. She declared herself in favour of divorce during the referendum, striking a chord with liberals, and is one of the few candidates familiar with the plight of asylum seekers. Her professional background gives her an intellectual edge over most other candidates.

But her forthright stance against racism and anti-immigrant sentiment will still alienate some 'typical' voters. Her depth on other issues outside her legal background still has to be tested.

Stefano Mallia

A solid candidate and member of the European Economic and Social Committee, he has a sound footing on economics, a technical appeal, business links, and solid argumentation. He has campaigned closely with Simon Busuttil and is part of this new breed of PN politicians. But he lacks a constituency and he is not a household name.

Jonathan Shaw

Young entrepreneur who in 2010 launched an online petition in favour of the introduction of divorce in Malta, is the PN's liberal face in these elections. He may appeal to the business community, is internet savvy and not tribal in his approach to politics. But he also lacks political experience and a constituency base, or the the political depth expected from this role.

Kevin Cutajar

Gozitan lawyer, 35, he secured 1,117 votes in the general election and may well be a force to be reckoned with in Gozo. Blind since his teenage years, he has avoided using his disability to attract sympathy votes. Moderate, level-headed, he may yet capture the imagination of voters but he has had no impact outside Gozo.

Ray Bugeja

Businessmen who was largely unknown before contesting the PN leadership race in which he garnered 5% of the vote. Now head of the party's finance commission, he has the cash for the campaign and enjoys no links to the Gonzi 'clan' but he is easily dismissed as an attention seeker with lots of money to spend.

Helga Ellul

German-born CEO of Playmobil has lived in Malta for the past 40 years. Her business acumen and success story in job creation is who she is but an inability to communicate in Maltese is an obstacle. Big business links and directorships could conflict with social legislation in the EU parliament.

Kevin Plumpton

PN's youth president attracted media attention by crossing swords with his own party when he said the PN should withdraw a judicial protest threatening the revocation of purchased citizenships. His 'gift-wrapped' Australia Hall was one of many media stunts, such as a protest against the IIP outside parliament, and travelling to Lampedusa by boat, that underline his savvy. But after being publicly censored by his own party, Plumpton may have lost kudos among party supporters.

Alfred Sant

Former prime minister who is the clear frontrunner in the Labour camp, and one of the few candidates with the intellectual clout to participate in the grand European debate between believers in further integration and sovereignists like himself.

Strengths

Respected former party leader, he will appeal to a latent eurosceptic wing in his party and is Labour's intellectual heavyweight in a race that is replete with ambitious dimwits.

Weakness

His candidature provides the Nationalist Party with the opportunity of re-exhuming Labour's eurosceptic past. His role in Labour's three consecutive electoral defeats and his refusal to accept the result of the 2003 referendum make him an easy target of attack. If elected, he may also clash with federalists in his own socialist grouping due to his sovereignist views.

Miriam Dalli

Second front-runner for Labour, she is at present a consultant to energy minister Konrad Mizzi, and is a household name because of her visibility first as a newscaster and recently a discussion host on One TV.

Strengths

She has the advantages of fame, sultry good looks, a slick image and good media presence.

Weakness

She is politically bland and lacks any real ideological grounding. Her slogan 'Priority Malta' is pretty... bland. She lacks a constituency, not having contested any previous election.

Deborah Schembri

Prominent figure in the pro-divorce campaign, she starts as a favourite for Labour's third seat. Her baptism of fire was getting elected to parliament in 2013 after a casual election with 1,613 first count votes.

She stood out in a crucial battle that changed the life of thousands of people for the better. She may get their sympathy vote this time round.  But contesting an MEP election just a year after winning a seat in parliament sends a conflicting message. Maybe it's compensation for not being included in the Cabinet.

Cyrus Engerer

A former Nationalist local councillor and gay rights activist, Engerer may have a fighting chance for Labour's third seat. His key role in lobbying for gay civil unions will attract liberal voters and also appeal to switchers who identify with his conversion from the PN to Labour after the divorce referendum. But only two weeks before joining Labour, he had proclaimed his loyalty to the PN, which, according to him, still had the "best leadership" team (that included Lawrence Gonzi). His 'Malta l-Ewwel' slogan is redolent of the Mintoffian mantra, an over-stretched attempt at appease Labour grassroots and exorcise his Nationalist past.

Marlene Mizzi

Elected MEP in 2013, the established entrepreneur served as Sea Malta chairman under the PN administration before Austin Gatt axed her. Self-made, she has used her strong personality and stamina to defend unpopular positions like her party's citizenship sale. But she lack's Sant's intellectual depth or Dalli's slickness: she is a businesswomen with a 'hunch' for politics but no particular mark of distinction, apart from being better suited than other contenders.

Charlon Gouder

Former One TV newshound and household name, he currently is spokesperson for culture secretary José Herrera. He carved a media niche through his persistent and relentless hounding of Nationalist figures before 2008 and is well-known and popular with the grassroots. But he lacks the political depth and expertise expected of an MEP.

Joseph Cuschieri

Cuschieri is not yet approved for the next elections. The MEP had ceded parliamentary seat for Joseph Muscat's co-option and was left years waiting to take up the sixth seat in the EP. The self-proclaimed 'voice of the worker' is an incumbent in this election - he is hardworking but it's no secret that he is being sidelined by the Labour electoral machine, and seems to be at odds with the stereotypical candidate being pushed by the Labour establishment.

Mario Farrugia Borg

Prominent Maltese convert to Islam, adds a touch of diversity to Labour's platform and could attract a growing Muslim vote, standing out as an affable communicator who appeals to "socialist" values, emphasizing his Mintoffian background despite having served for a time as a Nationalist local councillor. But his religious beliefs may contrast with the European socialists' liberal stances. He risks being perceived as a decoration on Labour's cake.

Lino Bianco

Architect known for his sensitivity for environmental issues, he penned the report that led to the revocation of a controversial permit in Ramla Bay in Gozo. Level-headed, appeals to educated voter, but not well-known, and any green appeal he might have is instantly curbed by Labour's bias towards developers.

Ivan Grixti

Accountant who promises to be 'a voice in Europe for you and your family', but the lowdown is that he served as president of the King's Own Band Club, treasure of the Arch-confraternity of the Blessed Crucifix in Valletta and a member of the audit committee of the archdiocese of Malta. Unknown.

Fleur Vella

A former chairman of the Malta Resources Authority who unexpectedly resigned a year after in 2012 citing "work commitments". Formerly a senior economist for the finance ministry, she may appeal to swithers as a former Nationalist, but she is another unknown with no realistic chance of being elected. An awkward move as was her public fall-out with the PN administration before joining the Labour bandwagon.

Clint Camilleri

Qala mayor is youngest Labour candidate at 25, but is largely unknown outside Gozo, and is an upstart with no solid political formation. He has also kept a low profile on environmental issues like the Hondoq development.

Peter Cordina

40 years in the police corps, served two years as prisons' director and then retired in 2010 from head of the Civil Protection Department. Father of established economist Gordon Cordina, and husband to TV personality Matilde Balzan. He certainly has a trustworthy appeal and a respected servant of various governments, but his candidature has not picked up. His lack of political experience could also be seen as a liability.

Arnold Cassola

For the third time, the former general secretary of the European Green Party (right, with Carmel Cacopardo to the left) and for some time an Italian MP, stands for Alternattiva Demokratika. Like Sant but from a diametrically opposite position, Cassola iss one of the few candidates with a passion for grand European issues. His candidature could thrive on disenchantment with the two parties.

He has the experience and knowledge of European politics required in this role and is widely respected for his intellectual clout even if he may appear patronizing at times. He may attract switchers disappointed by Labour's performance in government.

Having missed out by a few votes to get elected in 2005, Cassola failed miserably in 2009 elections. He may have lost the 2005 spark and may be perceived by some voters as yesterday's man, lacking the edge with younger voters attracted by the party's more radical platform in the last general election, while not being mainstream enough for conventional voters.

Carmel Cacopardo

A former PN president, Cacopardo distinguished himself as a scourge of developers and government in his role as investigative officer in the MEPA audit office between 2004 and 2007. He gives AD a southern flavour they lack, and is highly knowledgeable on EU and Maltese environmental legislation. But he lacks charisma and apart from his technical knowledge on environmental issues, he does not offer much that is not already on offer by Cassola, who is of the same age and probably appeals to same category of mainly ex-PN voters.