MT Survey | Gonzi improves ratings with PN voters, but Labour rakes in the spoils

How do you assess Lawrence Gonzi’s performance as Prime Minister? (%)

                        Sep 2010        March 2010        Sep 2009       Sep 2008

Positively       21.6                  23.1                       18.9                   38

Negatively     24.7                  36                           37                     29.5

Fair                 33.9                  36.1                        39.6                 18.1

Don’t know   19.8                  4.8                           4.4                   14.3

Given a choice between Lawrence Gonzi and Joseph Muscat, who do you trust most? (%)

                                                Sep 2010      March 2010      Sep 2009         Sep 2008

Lawrence Gonzi                  24.6                26.3                    23                       30.8

Joseph Muscat                    33.3                38.9                    36.3                    43.7

None                                     17.3                21.4                    25.2                    17

No Answer                           24.8                13.4                    15.6                     8.5

How would you vote if an election is held tomorrow? (%)

                        Sep 2010          March 2010          Sep 2009

PN                  14.8                    18.6                         14.9

PL                  26.8                    34                             36.8

AD                 1.2                      1.4                             0.7

Won’t vote    9                         12.6                          12.3

No answer  48.2                    33.4                          35.4

How had you voted in 2008 general election? (%)

PN                       29

PL                       26

AD                     1.1

Not voted         7.4

No Reply        36.5

How PN voters in 2008 assess Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi: (%)

                                  September 2010         March 2010                September 2009

Positively                  51.5                                47.7                                 36

Negatively                11.9                               16.8                                  18.6

Fair                             33.7                               32.7                                  39.5

Don’t know                2.9                                 2.8                                    5.6

How PN voters in 2008 would vote now:

                      September 2010                  March 2010

PN                 46.5                                         45.8

PL                 11.9                                         14.8

AD                 0                                               0

Won’t vote  10.9                                           11.2

No Reply   30.7                                            28.2

How PL voters in 2008 would vote now: (%)

                    September 2010           March 2010

PN                0                                       1.2

PL                77.8                                  79.3

AD                0                                         0

Won’t vote  2.2                                    2.4

No reply     20                                      17.1

Trust Rating among Nationalist and Labour Voters in 2008 election (%)

                                       PN                PL

Lawrence Gonzi          66.3             1.1

Joseph Muscat            15.8             88.8

None                              11.9             2.2

No reply                         6                  7.8 

Gonzi’s performance as Prime Minister has been judged positively by just 22% of respondents to a MaltaToday survey, and he still lags 9 points behind Labour leader Joseph Muscat, who remains the most trusted political leader.

But despite his popularity, Muscat has lost some ground since the last electoral survey (held in March,) seeing his trust rating falling from 39% to 33% compared to Gonzi’s 25%.

Gonzi’s trust rating has also fallen by 2 points since March, while support for his party fell from 19% to 15% – the same score registered by the PN in a MaltaToday survey a year ago.

The dip in support for both leaders and parties is corresponded by a rise in the number of undecided respondents. The number of non-committed respondents who could not express a preference for either leader has increased from 35% to 42% since March.

MaltaToday’s survey was held after the summer lull in political activity, characterised by a number of corruption cases hitting local councils.

The survey shows that Gonzi has continued to solidify his hold among a segment of PN voters. From the respondents who voted PN in 2008, the percentage who deem Gonzi’s performance as Prime Minister positively has increased from 36% in September 2009 to 48% in March, to 52% now.

But despite a growing favourable perception of his government among PN voters, Gonzi has not managed to block the haemorrhage to the Labour Party. 

The latest survey registers a small reduction in the percentage of PN voters in 2008 who would vote Labour if an election is held now from 15% in March to 12% now.

Significantly, 30% of PN voters in 2008 are presently undecided on who to vote for but only 18% could not express a choice between Gonzi and Muscat. 

It is also worth noting that Muscat enjoys more trust than Gonzi among 16% of PN voters (up from 14% in March). But Gonzi is still the better trusted of the two leaders among two-thirds of PN voters in 2008. On his part, Muscat is trusted by a staggering 89% of Labour voters.

Interestingly, both political leaders enjoy more popularity than the parties they represent. While 25% expressed their trust in Gonzi, only 15% would vote for the PN. And while 33% expressed their trust in Muscat, only 27% would vote for the Labour Party.

While Gonzi is 10 points more popular than the PN, Muscat is 6 points more popular than the PL.

This could indicate a greater personalisation of the political process and a strengthening of leaders over party structures. Alternattiva Demokratika remains stable at just 1% – roughly the same amount of support garnered last March and in the 2008 general election. The survey shows no shift from the other parties towards AD.

Methodological note

The survey was conducted between Thursday 9 September and Thursday 16 September. 488 respondents were chosen from different telephone directories. 350 accepted to be interviewed. The survey has a margin of error of +/-5.2%.