The battle for the swing councils

Only seven councils of the 34 which will have elections on April 11 have ever switched from one party to the other. Three of these – Safi, St Paul’s Bay and Qala – changed majority only in the 2012 election. 

The other three swing councils are Mosta, which the PN regained in 2012 despite not having a first count majority, Gzira in which the PL increased its majority by eight points in 2012, and Qormi, which switched to the PN only in 1996 but has been solidly Labour in every subsequent election, with the party winning 64% in 2012.  Labour has also won the last four elections in Hamrun, winning the last one with 62% of the votes.

The strength of the PL’s majority in recent elections suggests that Qormi, Gzira and Hamrun are beyond the PN’s reach.

The closest battle in this round of elections is expected in Mosta which the PL won only in 2007, and which the PN regained only in 2012, with the tightest of majorities.  Close battles are also expected in Qala and Safi, where Labour has a very small majority, and in St Paul’s Bay, where the PN may benefit from disenchantment with the current Labour-led council.

The spring hunting referendum is also expected to have a bearing on results as this will probably increase the turnout in council elections, especially in localities which are either strongly opposed to or strongly in favour of hunting. 

Labour clearly starts at an advantage, having a majority in 19 out of the 34 councils where elections are due. Moreover Labour has a majority of over 60% in 15 localities. The PN has a majority of over 60% in only eight localities.

The 2012 watershed

Most localities included in this round of council elections had their previous election in 2012 which saw Labour making strategic inroads by unseating PN majorities in St Paul’s Bay, Safi and Qala, which had previously always gone to the PN.

Recovering any of these councils will be the strategic goal of the PN this time round.

Labour has also retained and strengthened its majority in two councils, Gzira and Xaghra, which it had won for the first time in the previous round; even if it saw its meagre first count majority in Mosta shrink from 427 to 14.

Labour’s historic victory in St Paul’s Bay coincided with an abysmal turnout of just 35% (compared to 68% in 2008), which suggests that the absent Nationalist voter played a role in Labour’s 2012 victory.  

But the scale of the PN’s losses – the PN saw its voting share decline by 10 points – indicated that there were voters had actually switched.

In Qala, where turnout fell from 77% to 67%, PN losses can also be partly attributed to abstentions. The PL’s majority in Qala is the most fragile, with the party winning only 50.3% in 2012. By retaining this locality Labour would confirm the inroads made in the last general election in Gozo.  

In Safi the 2012 result suggests that voters had switched sides. In fact turnout in this locality dropped by just a percentage point while the PN lost seven points.

The referendum factor

This round of elections could see a higher turnout due to the hunting referendum, being held on the same day.  

Strong anti-hunting majorities in PN strongholds such as Attard, Balzan, St Julian’s and Swieqi could help the party increase its national percentage in the elections. 

St Paul’s Bay, which was lost by the PN only in 2012, had seen a massive decrease in turnout, and that benefited the PL. Moreover while the PN retains St Julian’s it also saw a massive dip in support amidst a low turnout in 2012.

Therefore the referendum could help the PN in its battle to regain St Paul’s Bay and to recover its full strength in St Julian’s. This is because surveys show a large percentage of PN voters (around 70%) will be voting against spring hunting. PN voters who turn up to vote ‘no’ may be more likely to cast their vote for their party.

The hunting referendum could also help the Greens in their bid to retain their seat in Attard and to gain some ground in localities such as St Paul’s Bay and St Julian’s.  

But Labour could benefit from the Prime Minister’s repeated declarations in favour of Spring hunting in pro-hunting localities, especially in Gozo. This could help the party retain or even strengthen its majority in Qala and Safi. This may explain why the Prime Minister chose a news conference in Gozo to reiterate his stand in favour of hunting in spring. 

Muscat’s gamble

Coinciding with the second anniversary of the election of the new Labour government, the election is being projected by the party in government as a referendum on Muscat’s performance in government.

While previous Nationalist governments used to play down the national importance of these elections, Labour leader Joseph Muscat has been upfront in turning these elections into a confirmation test for his own government.

Muscat has actively campaigned in these elections projecting a feel good factor based on the government’s successful performance in the economy.  The slogan “Malta ottimista” perfectly reflects this strategy.

This could well be a gamble for a party whose shortcomings in governance have been flagged by the Auditor General in two separate reports on the bail out of the Café Premier and ministerial intervention in hedging oil from SOCAR.

One reason for Muscat’s daring gamble is that internal party polls still show Muscat enjoying a higher trust rating than Busuttil. But Muscat’s claim that he starts the elections as an underdog is hardly credible. Muscat starts these elections with a strong lead in the polls and fully knowing that this round includes more Labour than Nationalist strongholds.

The PN has been more cautious and has recognised the sheer impossibility of winning a majority in these elections while hoping to recover some of the localities lost in 2012.   But if the PN does not manage to reduce the gap between the two parties in mid term elections which are usually difficult for a party in government, Busuttil’s leadership will be questioned once again.

This would represent Busuttil’s second consecutive defeat as PN leader after last year’s debacle in the MEP elections. For while the party starts as an underdog in these elections, it is expected to register an improvement either in its percentage of votes or in the number of localities won, especially in view of the government’s shortcomings in the past months.

If it does that, this round of elections could represent the beginning of the long road to recovery. Any gains by the PN would also send a strong message to the government not to take the electorate for granted, especially on issues related to governance and transparency.

But if Muscat manages to retain the councils won in 2012 and retain the same advantage percentage (55%) he would confirm his reputation for apparent invincibility.  Such a result would also send a message that shortcomings related to governance and transparency are not enough to dent trust in Muscat’s government and would confirm Bill Clinton’s maxim that “it’s the economy, stupid.”