[ANALYSIS] How Muscat reshuffled the cards

Prime Minister Joseph Muscat’s shock move to retain Konrad Mizzi in the Cabinet and Keith Schembri as chief of staff, two men so firmly entrenched in the government’s central nervous system, suggests a chess move aimed at consolidating his personal control over Labour and government.

For the last two months he weathered a barrage of revelations concerning the offshore holdings the two men set up in Panama, two mass demonstrations organised by the Nationalist Party on Castille place, and a confidence motion he carried with ease. But at what cost? When he finally announced that he would 'demote' Mizzi to a minister ‘without portfolio’ under his purview and keep Schembri running Castille, and promote Manuel Mallia – whom he had dismissed in 2014 – to the Cabinet, there was a moral emptiness about his move.

That hubris was all about political calculation.

Elections on his mind

Muscat’s decision keeps the Opposition in a confrontational mode as he banks on weathering the storm through sheer personal charisma and a blitz of good news on the economic front. The narrative is simple enough: Labour in power is a positive force, the Nationalists are negative and ‘bitter’.

He knows that even in the thick of the Panama Papers revelations, with a confidence motion giving the Opposition 13 hours to lay into him, he could bank on entrenched loyalties. The show of force on Sunday was clearly meant to renew tribal loyalties and reaffirm Muscat's total control over the party. The onslaught on Labour has galvanised supporters into defending their government, now seemingly under threat, hoping to thrive in a more polarised landscape where he may benefit from his power of incumbency.

Panamagate has already dented Muscat’s 36,000 majority. There’s no question that a section of switchers is inevitably migrating back to the PN or possibly other parties. The safe bet is that Muscat has resigned himself to winning in 2018 with a lower margin than his, admittedly unnaturally massive majority.

And he will turn the next election into a personal confrontation with Simon Busuttil, where he can bank on higher personal trust ratings. He wants to tell voters that he may not be their ideal choice, but neither are the options on offer.

So with that in mind Muscat took a good look around him and decided to save his inner circle of allies and galvanise his own ‘presidential’ campaign. In this strategy, Keith Schembri – who rode Labour to victory in 2013 – has an irreplaceable role. The two men are inseparable.
Mizzi’s reconfirmation as a minister but one lacking a specific portfolio may look bizarre (he will still assist Muscat, who now takes energy under him, in completing the LNG plant) but may be motivated by two main considerations.  Muscat had to send a message that he has done something to assuage elements within his party irked by Panamagate and he did so by removing Mizzi’s health and energy portfolios. Keeping him as minister within the OPM however, Mizzi retains his ‘larger than life’ clout, a man who has a finger in the Cabinet pie, whose role is vaguely undefined, and perhaps making him less directly accountable to public scrutiny.

The Mallia diversion

And then comes Muscat’s next Machiavellian chess move, a grand act driven by Muscat’s keen sense of self-preservation.
Bringing Mallia back as a minister for competitiveness, a former Nationalist who in 2013 was elected for Labour from two districts, may well have been motivated by electoral considerations. Crucially, Muscat knew that this was a natural consequence to retaining Mizzi
Surely Mallia’s reappointment was a natural consequence of retaining Mizzi. For how could Muscat keep Mallia out in the cold when Mizzi was not sacked on a far more serious and politically damaging issue? Even more crucial for Muscat is the fact that Mallia marshals an effective personal constituency machine that can sway votes for Labour. Mallia’s return reverses Muscat’s sacking over the Sheehan incident, one of the most embarrassing moments for this government.

So as Leo Brincat gets kicked up to the European Court of Auditors, Mallia now gets to reap the benefits of a ninth district (Gharghur, Swieqi, San Gwann, Msida, Ta’ Xbiex) that is free of veteran MPs.

And in the tenth district (Gzira, Pembroke, St Julian’s and Sliema) – where education minister and Labour heavyweight Evarist Bartolo gets elected from apart from his 12th district home constituency – Mallia puts to good use his Nationalist pedigree.

Bartolo himself has used his politically savvy to twin his own call for Mizzi’s resignation with an attack on the financial regulator, Joseph V. Bannister, for having directorships in offshore funds registered in the Cayman Islands. He had been retained by Muscat in 2013 after Bartolo’s fight against the regulator over the La Valette property fund fiasco. Again Bartolo’s knives in this latest feud are targeted at Muscat as well.

So it comes as no surprise that with a bolstered Mallia in the tenth district, Muscat has bolstered Bartolo’s competition as well.
But there’s an incontrovertible fact about Mallia’s appointment in this entire game of political poker. Mallia is the diversion, giving people something to tut-tut about while Mizzi gets ‘hidden’ inside Muscat’s fold.

Left out of the reshuffle is Michael Falzon, who also contests the ninth and tenth districts. Brincat’s departure knocks off another oldschool Labourite from the Cabinet. As environment minister his public perception was that of being a largely ineffective player, albeit his constant expression of green concerns in the Cabinet. His replacement, Jose Herrera, lacks the same deep conviction on environmental issues, but his charm might prove effective in dealing with civil society. And bereft of major environmental challenges in the next two years, Herrera may get an easier ride than Brincat.

Muscat’s defining moment?

With Mizzi removed from deputy leader for party affairs, Muscat could consider bringing back in Toni Abela in what is mainly a symbolic post inside the PL, but it seems that the post will once again go to a Cabinet minister thus, as was the case with Mizzi, weakening the role of the party as a watchdog on government.

Muscat however faces some unhappiness from delegates who feel their commitment to support Mizzi in his one-horse race should not have been snubbed so easily. The fact that Muscat announced Mizzi’s resignation from deputy leader in the context of the Cabinet reshuffle without internal party discussion, underlines his complete control over the PL. The post has been reduced to one which accommodates the leader’s whims.  

What Muscat could be underestimating is the strength of defining moments, where people feel betrayed or taken for a ride, especially considering that the majority as confirmed in various polls, felt that the right thing for Muscat to do was to sack both Mizzi and Schembri.
In 2013, Gonzi’s already bleak electoral chances had been ruined by his vote against divorce after the referendum, and before that with his attempt at raising ministerial salaries behind people’s backs. So while Muscat wants to come across as a decision-maker, having maintained the status quo his strategy surely backfires with M.O.R voters baffled by having Konrad Mizzi stay on as minister.

Reminiscent of Joe Mizzi’s role as minister without portfolio under Alfred Sant back in 1996, even this latest move by Muscat may be a hard sale for the experienced convincer. And if Mizzi retains his ministerial secretariat, the change then is only merely symbolic.
Muscat’s decision ultimately demarcates the gap between Labour voters, a majority of which wanted the PM to retain Mizzi and Schembri, and the rest of the electorate: the seeds have been sown for a coalition of voters, switchers and undecided included, who dislike Muscat’s way of doing things because he does not respect normal standards of political correctness. Last Sunday's march may well have further recoiled that category of people who still cannot fathom how Muscat can retain a Minister and a Chief of Staff who formed a company in Panama while in office.

That’s a feeling that even Labour voters (18% according to this newspaper’s survey wanted Mizzi to go) might be struggling with. Yet the reinforcement of tribal loyalties on Sunday has made it increasingly difficult for any Labour MP to represent their sentiment in today's motion of no-confidence in Mizzi.

Betraying expectations?

So Muscat now gives the Opposition an effective and legitimate battle-cry it previously lacked. Muscat, who on all previous occasions always chose to remove any albatross round his neck – Jason Micallef, Anglu Farrugia, Manuel Mallia, and Michael Falzon – has failed to meet expectations. 

Of course former Nationalist prime ministers have traditionally stood by their ministers when faced by serious allegations of corruption. But this time Muscat has voters who can match his inaction on Panamagate with international examples, such as the prompt resignation of Spain’s acting industry minister, Jose Manuel Soria, who had formed a company in Panama years before becoming minister; and the prompt resignation of Icelandic Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson.

Muscat also underestimates how expectations for good governance in Malta have increased substantially over the past decade, especially since his election in 2013 was fuelled by these same expectations. He now works in an environment where civil society, the independent media and informed public opinion is all the more intensive and ready to keep those in power accountable. He may bank on economic success, but a segment of educated voters whose vote is also dictated by moral considerations, is watching his every move.

What really stopped Muscat from sacking the two individuals is his personal loyalty or obligations towards them. He may have wished for them to resign, possibly offering them a new role, but they refused. In itself this underlines Muscat’s weakness when confronting his two closest allies in the government. After three years in power, his government has lost its sheen. A visionary reformist who came to power in 2013, Muscat has become a chess-player whose moves dictated by self-preservation.

Inside Muscat’s house of cards

Pressured to take action on the Panama Papers revelations, Joseph Muscat decides, after two months, not to sack his chief of staff Keith Schembri, second from left, or energy and health minister Konrad Mizzi (right).

He keeps Schembri by his side and also Mizzi, who is now minister without portfolio in the OPM, handling energy projects for the Prime Minister.

Manuel Mallia (third from left) who was sacked as home affairs minister in 2014 over the Sheehan shooting incident, returns as minister for competitiveness - the only option for Muscat after deciding not to sack Mizzi on far graver accusations.

Muscat also promotes Chris Fearne and José Herrera as ministers for health and environment, respectively; while kicking Leo Brincat up to the European Court of Auditors and giving Mallia free rein over the ninth electoral district.