No fear of domino effect on Libya from Maghreb revolts

Ranier Fsadni, lecturer at the university’s Mediterranean Institute, said that Libya had in the past experienced internal discord, but it was common for oil-rich Arab nations to “reach into its deep pockets” to quell revolt. Similarly, countries like Jordan depended upon regional peace in order to flourish economically. “Some protests at the government have taken place, but not against the monarchy. If the protests targeted the king, that would be significant.”

Fsadni was one of several speakers that discussed the Jasmine Revolution and the Egyptian uprising at Nationalist think-tank AZAD, and what they meant for the region.

Amongst the guests was Tunisian ambassador Abderrahmane Belhaj who paid tribute to his country’s revolt. “Before there was little freedom of expression and the control of economic resources was in the hands of President Ben Ali.”

The Egyptian ambassador was also invited but could not attend.

Fsadni noted that the Tunisian revolt’s distinct middle-class flavour had obscured the fact that the spark of the revolt had been a working-class vegetable seller. “He was not even a high-school graduate, but the media incorrectly picked up on Mohammed Azizi being a university graduate and over-emphasised the sense of malaise as being driven by graduates.”

Fsadni said that whether the revolution will address the concerns of the working class itself, was still to be seen. “It is a liberal revolution, but one that involves a radical redistribution of power... one that is more likely to please the middle classes.”

Egypt on the other hand was described in different terms by all speakers. The strong army presence, and the fact that many retired generals were given ministerial posts, meant that any transition of power would also mean giving 83-year-old Hosni Mubarak an honourable exit.

Foreign minister Tonio Borg said that if Mubarak had to step down immediately, this would not necessarily lead to a democratic transition. “The best solution would be a gradual reduction of powers of the president until September, and more powers to a vice-president to hold democratic elections towards the end of the year.”

He added that democracy “needs time to develop”, remarking that certain non-democratic states have flourished economically, although not without a large degree of repression.

International relations expert Stephen Calleya said the Maghreb would have to quickly introduce stability to their countries, if they were to achieve a transition of power. “Rule of law must be a non-negotiable principle we must insist upon. Stability is a prerequisite for the introduction of reforms and to meet the aspirations of the protestors.”

Calleya said that the youth bulge across North Africa, almost one-third of the population, had generated a substantial demographic that was “understandably looking towards their future with concern”. But simply generating the employment necessary for this demand would require a 6% growth in annual GDP over the next decade, Calleya said, “no mean feat in itself.”

Calleya said that mapping an agenda for such countries, insisting on the development of human rights as well as economic governance, was crucial. “We can’t just be content with a change in power... we must introduce serious mechanisms, such as a Mediterranean development fund that would support these countries. If we can find billions for automobile manufacturers, then the principle of solidarity should be also expressed at this crucial moment by both European and rich Arab nations.”

Shadow foreign minister George Vella noted that the Tunisian revolt had been lay and free of any religious invocations. “Not even one mention of Allahu Akbar,” Vella noted, to the seeming agreement of a nodding Tunisian ambassador. “The values of the Enlightenment appear to be passing on into countries like Tunisia.”

Vella also paid tribute to the notion of stability in talking over Egyptian president’s Hosni Mubarak’s possible departure from power. “The strength of the Muslim Brotherhood  means that if things do not work out as hoped in Egypt, with a peaceful transition to an interim government and a new Constitution; if they become an important part of a new government, the situation would become very different in the Middle East.”

Vella depicted an axis of converging Islamist forces in the Middle East, pitting Israel ensconced between the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Iran to the East and Egypt with the Muslim Brotherhood. “I don’t want to paint an ugly picture... but we all know what happened in 1967,” referring to the Six Day War in which Israel had defeated a concerted attack by Egypt, Jordan and Syria.