Harris and Trump neck-and-neck as swing states hold the key

The 2024 U.S. presidential race is teetering on a knife edge, with Kamala Harris holding a slim one-point national lead over Donald Trump, according to the Guardian's averaging of national and state polls.

However, this narrow advantage falls within the margin of error, highlighting the deep uncertainty surrounding the outcome. And crucially the battleground remains fiercely contested, as polls in six key swing states are too close to call, leaving both campaigns on edge. Adding to the unpredictability, a separate poll average by RealClearPolitics shows Trump with a slight 0.3% national lead, positioning him ahead in the critical swing states.

Trump won in 2016 despite losing the popular vote to Hilary Clinton by two points. Although Biden led Trump by 4.5 points in 2020, the election was still a cliff-hanger in the swing states with Biden carrying five out of six swing states by less than three points and Georgia by just 11,779 votes.

Democrats are also worried that, on both occasions, polls had shown Clinton and Biden enjoying a substantially greater lead than what was ultimately reflected in the results, underestimating Trump’s strength. This has fuelled speculation that Trump could, for the first time, win both the Electoral College and the popular vote.

However, polls also underestimated Democratic support, especially among women, in the 2022 midterm elections, which were overshadowed by restrictions on reproductive health brought about by Trump’s appointees to the Supreme Court. 

In one piece of good news for Democrats, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed Harris leading by three points in Iowa, a state not considered a swing state and typically seen as safe Republican territory. Harris' lead in Iowa is mainly attributed to a surge in support among older women, which, if replicated in other states, could propel her to victory.

Polls have consistently shown a gender gap, with Trump prevailing among men, particularly those without a college education, and Harris leading among women including older women from the suburbs who previously leaned Republican.

Also crucial to Harris’ path to victory is securing support among Black and Latino voters, two demographics where Trump has been making inroads, particularly among male voters.

Another significant factor in Michigan, a swing state, is the Arab American vote, which has become increasingly restless due to Biden’s support for Israel despite the growing civilian death toll in Gaza and Lebanon. Although Trump is aligned with the Israeli far right, he has attempted to appeal to Muslim voters without even calling for a ceasefire. The latest polls still show Harris leading Trump by two points in Michigan.

The two candidates remain locked in a tight race in Pennsylvania, where polls indicate a tie. This state is crucial for Harris’ path to victory, just as North Carolina, where Trump has recently focused most of his energy, is crucial for the Republican path to victory.

How to win the US election

The next President of the United States will be elected by an Electoral College of 538 members, designated by the states based on their population. This means the victor needs 270 Electoral College votes to win. On election day, voters will not be directly voting for Trump or Harris but rather determining the political affiliation of their state’s electors. These electors will form the Electoral College, which will choose the President on December 17.

In 48 out of 50 states, plus the District of Columbia (which is not a state but is represented in the Electoral College), the winner-takes-all system applies. This means that with 50% of the vote plus one, the leading candidate sends all electors in their favour to the Electoral College. This is why the election is mostly determined by the outcome in seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There is little doubt that Harris will carry more liberal states like California and New York, while Trump is expected to win more conservative states like Texas and Wyoming.

Analysts consider retaining Pennsylvania, which holds 19 Electoral College votes, as crucial for a Harris victory. Since 1948, no Democrat has become president without winning Pennsylvania, a rust belt state marked by industrial decline. Trump won this state in 2016 but lost it to Biden in 2020 by just 80,555 votes.

If Trump wins all the states he carried in 2020 and flips both Pennsylvania and Georgia (which Biden won by just 0.2% and currently leaning Republican), he will secure the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory. In the unlikely event he loses Georgia but flips Pennsylvania, he would need to win Michigan, which explains his focus on the Arab American vote.

But things could get complicated for Trump if Harris flips North Carolina, which has 16 votes and was won by Trump by only 75,000 votes in 2020.  But Harris cannot afford to lose both North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

If Harris loses Pennsylvania, she would need to retain Wisconsin and Michigan, where she is currently polling ahead, and win at least two of the other swing states where Trump has an edge. She could do this by adding North Carolina and Georgia or by winning Arizona, Nevada, and either North Carolina or Georgia.