[ANALYSIS] Why Trump won

I am genuinely worried about the results of the US election. This victory will embolden bigots, conspiracy theorists, climate change deniers, misogynists, and xenophobes worldwide. It will also have consequences for the future of the planet, possibly undoing the little progress we have made in addressing climate change.

Despite the instinct to dismiss this result as a victory of darkness over light, we must seek to understand why such outcomes occur. Not on the premise that voters are always right, but rather that understanding is key to countering what, for now, seems an unstoppable wave—one that is likely to impact the rest of the world, particularly Europe, in the coming years. I would like to consider several factors contributing to Trump’s victory in the United States, which will inevitably serve as a roadmap for other far-right movements closer to home.

The decline of mainstream media and the rise of echo chambers

The emergence of parallel echo chambers, gravitating towards alternative outlets that follow their own rules, has normalized statements and behaviours considered unacceptable just a decade ago.

While most mainstream media refused to cooperate with Trump, he did not need their coverage or fact-checking. He found alternative outlets for his views, sidestepping scrutiny and depicting it as a conspiracy of elites. Before dismissing mainstream media as “elitist,” remember its role in exposing major scandals like Watergate and revealing corruption and war crimes. Elon Musk, in many ways, stands as a winner of this election.

The Democrats’ reluctance to embrace left-wing economic populism and the way they ignored Progressive voters demoralized by Biden’s support for Israel

This stance was a double-edged sword in a country clearly shifting to the right. It is a mistake to assume that working-class voters automatically align with progressive solutions. For instance, Biden relieved some working-class students of tuition debt, which Republicans opposed. Similar challenges existed in foreign policy; Harris might have performed better in Michigan by aligning with progressives, but this could have weakened the coalition in other regions. Morality aside, it was a Catch-22.

Education as a factor in voting behaviour but so did suggesting that Trump voters are garbage

Trump gained significant support from non-college-educated voters, while Harris led among more educated groups. However, referring to such voters as “garbage,” as Biden did recently, or “deplorables,” as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, has been counterproductive.

The phenomenon of working-class voters with a low education voting for the far-right is a constant in far-right history. However, today, experts are increasingly distrusted by people who consume misinformation from conspiracy theorists online. The newly elected president dismisses climate change as a hoax and courted anti-vaccine supporters. While it may seem necessary to counter falsehoods, doing so without belittling those who believe them remains challenging.

Politics as spectacle and the resulting cynicism

The notion of politics as a show has contributed to the perception that Trump’s wild assertions, some bordering on incitement to violence, were merely part of his act.

We might hope that Trump, as President, will stop acting out and respect constitutional boundaries. However, the tolerance for his excesses is concerning. In normal times, a candidate who speaks of “the enemy within” or embraces violent language directed against critics would not have come this far.

But the Democrats may have miscalculated in attempting to counter Trump’s “show” with their own star-studded campaign, inadvertently reinforcing a narrative that pits elites against the masses.

Trump’s success in positioning himself as a champion of the masses

The decline in purchasing power over the past four years was particularly damaging for the Democrats, even though Trump offered no coherent alternative.

Imposing tariffs on goods from Mexico and escalating trade wars with China could lead to higher inflation. Still, many low-income Americans felt left behind. Trump’s strategy of creating a coalition of both free-market Republicans and disaffected citizens has resonated. But who exactly are the masses? The SUV driver lamenting inflation, the uninsured American unable to pay for medical care, or the teenage mother who must move to a blue state for an abortion? What about the Palestinian American who lost a family member in Gaza, or the working-class parents of a transgender child? The complexity of the “masses” defies easy categorization.  But Trump like right wing populists before him thrives in pitting this generic category against an equally generic category of people depicted as being part of the elite.  But who is exactly part of the elite?  Are ill-paid journalists, public spirited activists, artists and scientists also part of this elite?  And what about the rich donors who supported Trump?  

Trump’s strategic handling of the Supreme Court decision on abortion

By distancing himself from those advocating a federal ban on abortion and stating he would leave it to individual states, Trump minimized backlash.

Trump tactfully avoided the abortion issue, preserving support from conservative constituents. However, the risk of overreach remains, particularly if Republican’s control Congress. Equally troubling is how Trump tapped into misogyny, even suggesting that he would “protect” women, whether they wanted it or not. His gains among male Black voters, Latinos, and Arab voters were likely influenced by appeals to transphobia and patriarchal values.  But overall, the campaign suggests that Trump is aware of the political cost of further restricting reproductive rights.  Yet he may have no such qualms on other fronts, particularly when it comes to the rights of transgender persons.