A guide to the brave new Libya

It is rare in history for a country to start with a clean slate.  Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, the other two protagonists of the Arab spring, Libya lacks a national army and a tradition of political parties. With the green flag and all the mythology associated with it gone, Libya is back to year zero. Libyans will have to build a new sense of identity.  Not surprisingly Islam has emerged as a unifying factor. But will this emphasis on Islam conflict with the revolution’s promise of creating democratic institutions?

Death of a tyrant

The execution of Gaddafi gave Libya one important certainty; there is no turning back to the past. But it also stained the human rights record of the new regime.

Surely the summary execution of a dictator following a popular uprising is not peculiar to Libya, and a number of western democracies owe their foundation to such bloody events. In fact Gaddafi’s infamous end is strikingly similar to that of Benito Mussolini, whose body was hanged for public display in Piazza Loreto in Milan, and Nikolai Ceausescu who was shot with his wife in 1989.

But neither episode prevented the two countries from becoming democratic. And while the blood of its former dictator has stained the new Libya, this does not necessarily preclude a more humane order in future. 

The only difference is that while the Ceausescu and Mussolini were actually condemned to death by kangaroo courts, Gaddafi appears to have been lynched in a confusing situation after being captured alive. 

In fact the official version remains that Gaddafi was killed in crossfire even if most journalistic reconstructions point toward a summary execution.

Risk of disintegration

What is even more significant in Gaddafi’s death is that it once again exposed the lack of a chain of command, with the National Transitional Council insisting that it wanted him alive for a trial but unable to control the situation on the ground. 

In fact the greatest risk facing Libya is not an insurgency by the remnants of a regime-whose popularity seems to have been restricted to a few enclaves like Sirte, but conflict between rival armed bands eager to settle old scores before a central authority comes in place.

What seems evident is that fighters like those from Misurata who have borne the brunt of a long bloody siege, will not be easily swayed by calls for reconciliation.

] Libya is relatively homogenous and is not split on sectarian or ethnic lines, and this militates against the risk of a breakdown similar to what happened in Iraq. But any prospect of disorder or breakdown of law and order aggravated, by the widespread availability of arms would be bad news for western investors in Libya. 

The situation will be aggravated if these companies bring in foreign contractors for their security needs. Surely their reputation precedes them. Their presence in Iraq contributed to the resentment of locals against foreigners in their country.

The human rights test

A greater test for the NTC will be how it will treat an estimated 7,000 Gaddafi loyalists, including alleged mercenaries from African countries, still languishing in make shift prisons. 

Human Rights Watch has also called the NTC to investigate the apparent execution of 53 loyalists in a hotel in Sirte last week.

The NTC cannot indefinitely blame reports of abuses on its inability to rein in the various armed bands of rebels. 

After having backed the rebels, any silence by the west on abuses committed by the new leadership would be interpreted as complicity.

On his part Maltese Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi has sent a clear signal when he said he would have would have preferred to see Gaddafi face a judicial process before an independent tribunal and that “national reconciliation cannot start with an act of violence.”

International pressure has had some impact, as the NTC has accepted a probe in to Gaddafi’s death.

An Islamic Libya?

The second shock for western liberals came on liberation day, last Sunday when NTC chairman Mustafa Abdul Jalil proclaimed Libya as an Islamic state with sharia as its law, promising that any law contradicting sharia will be nullified.

The first law to be nullified was the ban on polygamy, a practice which is legal but in rapid decline in neighbouring Egypt and Algeria but is banned in more secular Tunisia.

The other casualty of the Libyan revolution is the banking system which is set to be re-organised along Islamic lines.

Interpretation of Sharia law varies across the Muslim world.

Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Sudan, Morocco and Malaysia all have legal systems strongly influenced by sharia, but all these countries nominally cede ultimate authority to their constitutions and the rule of law.  

But others like Saudi Arabia adopt a far stricter version of sharia, which is the only law.

It is unclear which direction Libya will take. Probably it will be influenced by the direction taken by Islamic parties which are expected to win elections in neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt.

In a country bereft of institutions, parties and national symbols, Islam is likely to emerge as a source of unity.

Since its inception, the commitment to make Libya an Islamic state has co-existed with liberal commitments like freedom of the press, respect for religious minorities and gender equality in the NTC’s statutes.

Jalil has often qualified the references to Islam by defining the Libyan brand of Islamism as “moderate”. It is the same tagline used by budding Islamic parties in Egypt and Tunisia, as well as by the ruling party in secular Turkey.

In fact some may argue that the emergence of moderate Islamic parties in North Africa would well be the final blow for the Al Qaeda brand, which found fertile recruitment ground in the dungeons of secular dictators.

On the other hand secular dictatorships like that of Bashir Assad in Syria, Ben Ali in Tunisia, and to some extent Gaddafi himself (who also governed through his own version of sharia law),are ample proof that secularism in itself is no guarantee of democracy.

The fact that a new generation of Islamic parties now champions democracy amplifies their differences from Al Qaeda and Salaphist groups who reject democracy and propose the reinstatement of the caliphate.

The NTC itself includes western educated liberals, former exponents of the Gaddafi regime like Jalil himself, Prime Minister Jibril and former members of the Islamic Fighting Group. 

It was the latter who suffered most under the Gaddafi regime for being the first to resist Gaddafi’s rule and to suffer the consequences. This could increase their appeal in any forthcoming election. 

The absence of organised secular parties could well turn any election into a choice between moderate Islamists and more radical elements.

Yet one should not underestimate the plurality of Libyan society, which despite the eccentricities of its leader was never completely cut off from the rest of the world, to the extent that many Libyans lived and worked abroad.

Still it is difficult to imagine a new Libya without a political role for the Islamists.

One likely candidate to lead a new Libya is Abdelhakim Belhadj, who was jailed and tortured for seven years after being handed over to Gaddafi by the CIA. British and US agents also interrogated him during this time.

In August he led the Tripoli brigade in to Muammar Gaddafi's Bab al-Aziziya compound, after fighters from his Brigade broke through the defences of the ousted leader's fortress in the heart of the city. 

Belhadj has asked an apology from Britain and the US but insisted that this should be no obstacle for relations with the west.

But persons like him could play a key role as they are the least likely to be seen as lackeys of ravenous westerners hungry for Libya’s resources.

What’s in store for western investors?

The establishment of some form of democracy in Libya might create hurdles for western companies, as the new leaders might be reluctant to be seen as foreign stooges.

Moreover the decision made by NTC members not to contest a future election means that western governments and businesses may well face an entirely different set of interlocutors in eight months’ time

Added to this the creation of institutions could well work against foreign companies (including Maltese ones) who secured contracts through direct access to the Gaddafi inner circle. 

On the other hand any legal standardisation of property and contractual rights could benefit the entry of new players in the field even if corruption will remain an enduring problem.

Moreover the decision made by NTC members not to contest a future election means that western governments and businesses may well face an entirely different set of interlocutors in eight months time.

Those who might have intervened in Libya with the aim of gaining more contracts might well be in for a surprise.

But it will be difficult for Libya to unleash its potential without foreign investments.

Libya’s greatest advantage in all this is its vast oil wealth. One of the grievances of Libyans under Gaddafi was that despite the country’s vast oil wealth, most Libyans earned less than three dollars a day.

The promise of wealth gives the Libyan revolution an advantage over others in the Arab world.

Ultimately the promise of prosperity could be the glue that will hold Libyans together in their quest for a normal life.

Whenconsidering that Libya’s output and oil reserves per head come close to Saudi Arabia’s, Gaddafi’s Libya dismally failed to improve the livelihood of its six million people as much as it should have.

Under Gaddafi most people relied on free public services to compensate for low salaries. In itself this encouraged sloth. The country failed to develop its infrastructure and to develop its tourism infrastructure. This could be a bonanza for Maltese companies in the coming years if Libya is stabilised.

One thing, which the new Libya must come in terms, will be a legacy of racism towards black Africans aggravated by the use of some of them as mercenaries in the final days of the Gaddafi regime. Reports of abuses against hundreds of black Africans accused of being mercenaries but probably guilty of being in the wrong place at the wrong time do not augur well for the growth and prosperity of the new Libya.  Without them it will be difficult to imagine Libya developing its vast potential.  Whether migrants will be accepted in Libya’s new social fabric could also have a direct impact on Malta, which has often been on the receiving end of African migrants fleeing Libya.