France elections 2012 | Reaping Sarkozy’s harvest

Francois Hollande, who emerged in pole position in last Sunday's first round, seems to be heading for the first Presidential victory of the French centre-left since 1988 when Francois Mitterrand was still party leader.

But the news of the left's victory was overshadowed by the fact that one in every five French voters gave their preference to the far right candidate Marine Le Pen.

Not only had the far right achieved its best ever result in France, but right-wing parties won the largest share of the vote and the combined forces of the left polled less than predicted in the polls.

Despite declining support for Sarkozy, the sum of the vote for right wing candidates has actually increased from 44% in 2007 to 47% on Sunday. On the other hand, the sum of left wing candidates also increased from 36% to 44%, mainly thanks to an increase of the far left vote.

For although Melenchon did not do as well as predicted he still managed to win a credible 11%,¬ the largest score for the far left since the fall of communism in 1989. The two "extreme" candidates surpassed the centrist Francois Bayrou who saw his votes slump from 18% to 9%.

Despite the greater strength of the right as a whole, pollsters are still predicting a convincing victory for Hollande in the second round.

One reason for this could be that Sarkozy has shifted too much to the right for centrist voters. Ironically, in his bid to recover losses to Le Pen, Sarkozy could further alienate Bayrou voters.

What makes Hollande's victory possible is that while far left voters are expected to rally behind the socialist candidate, the same cannot be said of far right voters.

A poll conducted immediately after first count results showed that while 66% of Le Pen voters will actually vote for Sarkozy, 18% would vote for Hollande and 16% would abstain.

It is extremely improbable that Marine Le Pen would endorse any of the two candidates, but it is obvious that a Hollande victory would suit her ultimate design of transforming the Front National in to the main party of opposition against a socialist government.

What will actually determine the election is how many far right voters will desert the polls or vote for the left. 

This raises the question: why are far right voters so disinclined to support the most right-wing President in recent times?

The return of the far right

Ahead of the 2007 presidential-election campaign, Nicolas Sarkozy echoed one of Le Pen's catchphrases, declaring that: "If anybody doesn't like France, they should leave". In so doing, he neutralised the National Front.

After shocking the nation in 2002 by clinching second place behind Chirac and a spot in the final round, in 2007 Jean Marie Le Pen saw his percentage vote drop from 17% to 10% and was relegated to fourth place behind the centrist Francois Bayrou.

The result prompted Jean Marie Le Pen - the hardliner who once described the Holocaust as "a detail of history" - to make way for his daughter Marine who  softened her party's image, making it more appealing to women and younger voters.

Still, Marine's rise cannot be attributed to Sarkozy betraying expectations.

He remained committed to a hard line on immigration while in government. In 2010 he gained international notoriety by expelling thousands of Roma people.

Last year, he suspended the Schengen agreement to block an influx of north African migrants from Italy, thus clashing with Silvio Berlusconi's right wing government.

Still, despite this notable track record, National Front managed to secure its best ever result.

This raises the question on whether Sarkozy had actually paved the way for Le Pen. For while he legitimised the Front National's prejudices, his austerity-driven policies created the kind of anger normally exploited by both the far left and the far right.

In these circumstances, Marine Le Pen skilfully combined her party's traditional anti immigrant message with a condemnation of corporations and banks. 

In this way, she combined the two major concerns of French voters; that of French national identity and that of the French social model. She stood out in the election as the great defender of the French exception.

The triumph of Mr Ordinary

The election has shown that an ordinary looking man running on a traditional centre left tax and spend platform can still win a contest where image plays an important part.

Hollande's central plank is to increase taxes on the richest part of the population (raising the tax rate to 75% for those earning more than €1 million) and to employ 60,000 new teachers.

Hollande also wants the European Union to revise its priorities by giving more importance to jobs and growth than to deficit and debt reduction. 

This has raised concern in financial markets that an Hollande victory could aggravate the eurozone crisis. It also explains why Angela Merkel is supporting Sarkozy.

But the negative reaction of financial markets on Monday may well have strengthened Hollande, as the French may well perceive this as an attempt by the markets to impose their favoured candidate.

Some of the concerns on Hollande seem exaggerated.

He remains firmly committed to balance French deficit by 2017 and is firmly committed to the European project.

He surely goes against the grain when proposing reversing Sarkozy's timid pension reform, which increased the retirement age to 62 when most European countries have risen retirement age to 65 or 67.

The fact that far left candidate Melenchon failed in his bid to clinch third place also benefits Hollande, in the sense that he is less conditioned by the far left than Sarkozy is by the far right.

The French exception

The French election has been dominated by the appeal of French Exception, a notion which on the left is tied with to a defence of its social model and on the right with the last vestiges of national grandeur.

This was accompanied by a weakening of pro-European forces on both left (the Greens) and centre (Francois Bayrou). Populists on both sides of the spectrum have won 30% of the vote.

That said, left wing candidate Jean Luc Melenchon did strike a chord thanks to his ability to rally the disenfranchised and mobilise them against the far right by directing their anger against economic injustice.

He should also be credited for providing an alternative for angry voters inclined to vote for Le Pen, while directly confronting racist prejudice. 

Neither does the Eurosceptic label fit Melenchon - a staunch federalist for most of his life and now a proponent of a different model of integration based on the French model.

The safe pair of hands

Sarkozy's attempt to portray himself as a safe pair of hands in difficult times has so far failed to sway voters. So has his belief that he can sway voters through sheer charisma and dynamism during the electoral campaign.

In fact, since the advent of the financial crisis, all incumbent governments (except Donald Tusk in Poland) have been swept aside. Elections in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain and Slovakia have resulted in a change in government. 

Still, while in most of these elections, electorates where showing the red card to governments which have taken their country to the brink, Sarkozy's France is still weathering the storm.

But so far, the French election seems to show that it is nearly impossible to recover the trust of the electorate when this is lost. Sarkozy's last hope is a dashing performance in the final debate pitting him against Hollande.

On his part, Hollande has turned down Sarkozy's demand for three debates, insisting that one is enough. This could be an indication that Hollande has more to lose from these debates.