Winner takes naught?

By Friday morning, Britain and the rest of the world will know the outcome of the tightest election the UK has ever seen, but it might take weeks to know who will be in government.

Traditionally, Britons vote on Thursdays because workers were paid on Fridays and holding polls one day before payday ensured that people were not too drunk to vote. But, on Friday morning I wouldn’t blame anyone for feeling disoriented and befuddled because the winner will not necessarily be in government.

The out-dated electoral system will most probably churn out an equivocal result which will throw the country into the unchartered waters of political uncertainty and long weeks of negotiations between parties. 

This election could see the Conservatives or Labour winning more votes and more seats than the other and still end up on the opposition benches. 

Moreover there’s a lot at stake. This election will not only shape the future of the world’s fifth largest economy but it will also determine the European Union’s future since the ruling Conservatives and the Eurosceptic right-wing UKIP are adamant on holding a referendum over the country’s permanence in the bloc.

With support for Labour and the Conservatives – the largest two parties in post-war Britain – at an all time low, smaller parties will play a determining role in this year’s election. 

Different scenarios

Although up to eight parties are expected to be represented at Westminster, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party are likely to be the kingmakers and decide whether David Cameron will remain in possession of the keys to No 10 Downing Street or hand them over to Labour leader Ed Miliband. 

Many analysts and commentators have dubbed the 2015 campaign as boring and the main differences between the larger parties are in form rather than in content. 

However, there a few policy areas in which Cameron and Miliband are diametrically opposed and the outcome of prospective coalition talks could take the country in opposing directions, especially in fiscal, social and foreign policy. 

All polls indicate that neither the Tories nor Labour will win the outright majority needed to govern alone. Parties need 326 seats to govern but if no party secures a majority, an alliance of more than 322 MPs could probably survive a confidence vote.

Although Cameron and Miliband stoically insist that they could yet score a surprise victory, polls show that the two parties are head to head and the chances of a hung parliament are growing by the hour. 

The most likely outcome is a Tory/Lib Dem redux, however the parties could fall short of the magic number of seats needed for a majority and they could rely on forming a coalition with the conservative minnows from Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party. 

Though Tory right-wing factions and senior figures in the Liberal Democrats are not enthusiastic about a second Tory/Lib Dem government, in recent days the Liberal leader and outgoing deputy prime minister Nick Clegg has signalled his inclination to go into a fresh coalition with the Tories, by insisting that he did not regard the demand for an in/out referendum on the European Union as a red line. 

This could see the leader of the most pro-European party in the UK lead his country out of the EU but this compromise on his part could be a trade off for Tory tactical voting in Clegg’s constituency in Yorkshire, which should ensure that the Lib Dem leader holds on to his seat.

The Lib Dems are set to lose over half of their 57 seats and this could possibly see Clegg replaced by party stalwarts such as outgoing chief secretary to the treasury Danny Alexander or energy minister Edward Davey. Both have expressed their doubts on whether the Lib Dems should continue their partnership with Cameron after experiencing a heavy haemorrhage of voters and members. 

Therefore, the Tories need Clegg to retain his seat and the Lib Dem leadership to stand any chance of securing a deal with the party. 

On the other hand, Miliband’s best chances of securing a majority is entering a partnership with the Scottish National Party, however Miliband has ruled out the possibility, saying that this would endanger the unity of the kingdom. 

The SNP’s main platform is built on the winding down of the nuclear submarine programme Trident, a reversal of austerity measures and increasing spending by £140 billion. However, the Tories in their increasingly negative campaign, claim that the Scottish Nationalists would blackmail a Labour government into creating a bigger deficit and Miliband himself has ruled out any kind of deal with the SNP because he believes the Scots want to hold another referendum on Scottish independence within the next year.  

Labour has come under attack from many quarters about its inability to hold on to Scotland, which up to 2010 predominantly voted red, however these critics have snubbed the Scottish electorate’s freedom to vote for the party they feel best represents Scottish interests. 

Another option for Miliband would be that of forming an alliance of progressive parties with the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and Greens which could see the smaller parties support a Labour government on a case-by-case basis.

Miliband could come to rue his decision to snub the SNP but what is clear is that  

Britain is undergoing fundamental changes in its political system and culture. 

It could finally convince the Anglo-Saxons that there’s nothing wrong with coalitions and it might finally spell the end of the first past the post system.