Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton: US election underway

Hillary Clinton has cast her ballot in New York as her rival for the presidency Donald Trump said he would see a defeat as a “tremendous waste of time”.

Millions of Americans are going to the polls to elect their 45th president at the end of an acrimonious and wildly unpredictable campaign that has divided the nation.

Clinton was greeted by hundreds of supporters on the tarmac at Westchester Airport as she made her way back from the campaign, before casting her ballot.

Trump, also back in New York, expressed confidence he would “win lots of states”.

.@HillaryClinton and @billclinton vote in #USElection2016 in #Chappaqua, #NewYork https://t.co/JX8F9JvnW2

— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 8, 2016

Speaking on Fox on Tuesday, he added: “If I don't win, I will consider it a tremendous waste of time, energy and money.”

American voters are finally voting at the end an election campaign that could elect either the first female president of the United States or a celebrity billionaire who threatens to rewrite the rules of politics forever.

Minutes after midnight the traditional first election day ballot was cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, as Lady Gaga in North Carolina and Donald Trump’s running mate Mike Pence in Michigan introduced competing last-ditch rallies.

With a fumbled start that many will hope does not herald more serious voting irregularities to come, residents of Dixville delivered four votes for Hillary Clinton, two for Trump, one for libertarian Gary Johnson and a quirky write-in for the 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney.

TODAY WE MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 8, 2016

Democrats were cautiously optimistic of national victory after Trump’s promise to build a wall against immigrants appeared instead to be bolstering Clinton’s electoral firewall.

Analysis of early voting behaviour suggested the Republican candidate may have stirred a demographic giant by encouraging up to 87% more Hispanic voters than usual in states such as Florida.

Democrats began election day with an average lead in national opinion polling of around three points, though state-level polling suggested several possible paths to victory also remained for Trump among white working-class voters.

Leaving nothing to chance, Clinton and President Barack Obama held afternoon rallies in Michigan on Monday and appeared on stage together in Philadelphia with Bruce Springsteen, a one-man songbook for America’s blue-collar angst.

The former secretary of state implored “we have to bridge the divide in our country” as she began pivoting to what may be a key challenge if she does win. “I regret deeply how angry the tone of the campaign became.”

In New York, Madonna – sporting a stars and stripes bobble hat – covered John Lennon’s Imagine in an impromptu acoustic show.But Trump was voicing equal confidence he could pull off a surprise victory that would send shockwaves around the world, hoping to channel anger over jobs and trade into an election day upset without parallel.

"We don’t want to shrink the vision of this country. We want to keep expanding it.” —Hillary

— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) November 8, 2016

“Today is our independence day,” he told the audience in Grand Rapids. “Today the American working class is going to strike back, finally.”

“We have one flawed candidate left to beat,” added Trump, reeling off his list of equally unexpected wins in the Republican primary. “It’s going to be the beginning of a new adventure.”

The Trump camp went into the final day of the campaign needing an almost clean sweep of battleground states such as Florida and North Carolina to win outright, plus a series of shock wins in the rustbelt that looked less and less likely.

But sensing possible danger, the Clinton campaign poured last-minute resources into the industrial midwest, a region where she struggled against a similar antiestablishment surge for Bernie Sanders during the primary election season.

 

Worldwide interest in US election – Malta tops EU search interest index

Malta was ranked number 1 out of the 28 EU member states for search interest in the 2016 US Presidential election, with an indexed search interest of 100 out of 100.

Many Americans might be suffering from election fatigue as we enter the final stretch before voting day, but if Google search traffic is any indication, the world is still more than interested.

'I either drink from one dirty river or another' - my limo driver on his agonising voting decision tomorrow. #USElection

— Piers Morgan (@piersmorgan) November 8, 2016

Over the last week, global searches related to the election have surged – particularly in Canada, Uganda, Ghana, Ireland and Nigeria, the countries outside the US where Google search interest has been the highest over the past seven days.

According to this week’s trends, here’s what the rest of the world wants to know before America heads to the polls.

EUROPE

While Malta ranked first out of all EU member states for searches related to Tuesday’s election in the US, the Irish want to know where to place their bets. Searches related to election odds and a popular online betting site rose in popularity throughout the week. The search “Trump win” increased by 5000%, which might suggest gambler’s regret -- one betting website has already paid out $1.1 million on a Clinton victory.

ASIA

In Singapore, it’s all about Clinton and the dollar. Singaporeans searching for information about Clinton’s FBI probe are also querying the Dow Jones and the price of Groupon shares. When news broke that the FBI was looking into new Clinton emails, the Dow dropped 125 points, but then rebounded later in the day once more information was released.

AFRICA

In Ghana, people want to know when the election is; Ugandans are looking for recent polling statistics. Nigerians searching for “the latest on Hillary Clinton” are also checking out CNN polls; Kenyans, meanwhile, prefer Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.

AUSTRALASIA

Australians don’t want to miss the results – and since they are many time zones away, they want to be sure they get their dates right. In New Zealand, searches for James Comey, Clinton and the FBI spiked this week. And like the Irish, New Zealanders are also placing their bets on who they think might win.

NORTH AMERICA

Canadians are mostly interested in Clinton – searches for James Comey, FBI Clinton and the Clinton emails have been trending since the latest in the email saga broke earlier this week.

 

Markets prepare for new president

World markets are mostly subdued Tuesday as traders and investors worldwide await the results of the US presidential election. The latest polls generally show Hillary Clinton with a slight lead. However, the UK Brexit vote results in June that defied the polls are still on the minds of many.

The marketplace would take a surprise victory by Donald Trump as an injection of keen uncertainty and trading in many markets would likely become volatile.

Ongoing economic uncertainty, such as the #USElection & #Brexit, led to a 44% YOY climb in investment demand. #GDT https://t.co/FQTBhcEVVG pic.twitter.com/p1B0vJzKiY

— World Gold Council (@GOLDCOUNCIL) November 8, 2016

Safe-haven gold prices sold off sharply Monday, amid the keen “risk-on” trader and investor attitudes. The yellow metal is seeing a moderate corrective bounce Tuesday.

The OPEC oil cartel said Tuesday that world oil prices will not rise by as much as the cartel forecast earlier. It said demand won't rise as much as OPEC expected. Nymex crude oil prices are presently trading near steady at just below $45.00 a barrel after dropping to a nearly three-month low of $43.57 last Friday.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales report. A couple of Federal Reserve officials also speak today.

Strong selling pressure seen in the gold market Monday continued during the overnight Asian trading session. Spot gold on Kitco hit resistance of $1,286.10 an ounce with support coming in at $1,279.40 an ounce.

 

The Vote

The new President of the United States – who will be sworn in on January 20, 2017 – is not selected by a plurality of popular votes, but rather from a majority of what are called ‘electoral colleges.’

While voters cast their vote locally, the results actually mean an allocation of votes for individuals known as presidential electors who will represent the voter in the final election. Each state chooses a set of electors for each ticket on the ballot. The set of electors that represent the presidential ticket that wins the state’s popular vote then casts their electoral vote accordingly.

Each state’s number of electoral votes is calculated by adding the state’s current number of US representatives and US senators. Therefore, more populous states have more representatives, therefore using more electoral votes in the general election. Following this method, each state earns a guaranteed minimum of 3 electoral votes.

Residents in US ‘territories’ including Puerto Rico, Guam, the US Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and the Northern Marianas Islands cannot vote in the general election.

Whichever presidential ticket wins the majority of electoral votes (270 or greater) wins the general election. In the rare instance that no presidential ticket wins at least 270 electoral votes, then the new president is chosen by a popular vote in the House of Representatives, and the new vice president is chosen by a popular vote in the Senate.

This means that a candidate can win the presidency while still losing the popular vote. This has in fact happened several times in US history, most recently with the election of George W. Bush in 2000.

In 2012, 54.9% of the more than 235 million eligible voters exercised their right to vote.