[ANALYSIS] Donald Trump: Harmless clown or dangerous fascist?

The election of Donald Trump has drawn extreme reactions, with his supporters viewing him as the best President since George Washington while his detractors see him as the devil incarnate. 

He might be dismissed as an entertainer-in-chief but some fear a throwback to the 1930s. 

The world is shocked at why America chose a racist and misogynist millionaire as their next president. 

Yet, a brief glance at the results shows that Trump was elected because he won the hearts and minds of white men, college educated white voters, the middle class and the rich, rural America, the industrial heartland and Christian voters. 

Identifying who voted for Trump is easy, but identifying the reasons why they voted for him is a more complicated task. 

Americans may have voted Trump into the White House, but that doesn’t mean they love him.

One of the most telling findings from the US elections exit polls was that Trump won despite being disliked by 60% of voters. While 54% of voters had an unfavourable view of Hillary Clinton, Trump managed to win the vote of the majority of voters who disliked both candidates. 

Who voted Trump?

Hillary Clinton might have won more votes nationwide, however the archaic and perplexing winner-takes-all electoral system designed in the 1880s gave Trump the victory.

Although counting has not been concluded, Clinton is on track to win the votes of 63.4 million people, compared with 61.2 million for Trump.

Trump’s triumph might have come as a surprise to many, especially since he trailed Clinton by some 4 points going into Tuesday’s election. 

While many perplexed pollsters are trying to understand what went wrong, the data from exit polls might provide preliminary explanation on who voted for whom and why. 

Predictably, this election was about the economy and the state of the American economy trumped other issues such as immigration and terrorism. 

Trump’s victory was made possible by his popularity among the middle class and the richer voters. He won a majority, albeit a slight one, among voters who earn more than $50,000 a year while Clinton fared much better with low-income earners.

She won 53% of voters who earn less than $30,000 (to Trump’s 41%) and 51% of voters in the $30,000 to $49,000 bracket. 

But the most important divide in this election was not between whites and non-whites. It was between those who are often referred to as educated voters and those who are described as working class voters. 

60% of Americans do not have a college degree and Trump won 67% of this category while 51% of voters with a high school level of education or less also opted for the Republican. 

Hillary Clinton won 53% of voters who earn less than $30,000 (to Trump’s 41%) and 51% of voters in the $30,000 to $49,000 bracket

Among college graduated, Trump only won 45% to Clinton’s 49% and the Democrat fared even better among post-graduates – winning 58% of the vote against Trump’s 37%. 

Trump’s candidature also exposed a deep class divide among white voters, with the Republican winning 67% of white voters without a college degree (Clinton won 28%) and 49% of white college graduates (Clinton won 45%).

One of the keys to Trump’s victory was his sweeping wins in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – four traditionally Democratic states which have however elected a Republican governor since 2010.

His criticism of Clinton’s support of the North American Free Trade Agreement and his opposition to other free trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership resonated with millions of voters who wanted change. 

As Clinton dithered on free trade agreements, Trump’s plans to slap a 35% tariff on any Mexican-built cars shipped back to the US and his promise to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was signed by Bill Clinton in 1993, hit a chord with angry voters.  

On the other hand, Clinton won 71% and 75% of non-white college graduates and non-white voters without a college degree respectively. 

However, claims that Trump won because the majority of voters are racist were dispelled by Trump’s support among Latino voters.   

Despite his disparaging comments on Mexican migrants and his hard stance on immigration, 29% of Latinos voted for Trump – 2% more than the support earned by Republican nominee Mitt Romney in 2012 in the same demographic.

Meanwhile, despite his record of discrimination against blacks and his failure to distance himself from white supremacist groups such as the Ku Klux Klan, African Americans did not turn out to vote against Trump. 

In fact, Trump received a higher percentage of African American votes than Romney did and although black voters overwhelmingly voted for Clinton – 88% to 8% for Trump – the number of black voters who made it to the polls was fewer than it was in 2012 and 2008. 

Curiously, 9% of declared Democrats voted for Trump who also won 48% of independent voters while only 7% of Republicans voted for Clinton.  

Trump’s success among Democrats could be a direct result of die-hard Bernie Sanders voters who felt bitter following the way Clinton beat the democratic socialist Vermont senator. 

However, the dislike for Clinton runs further than Sanders loyalists and her links with Wall Street and the investigations over the use of her personal email while serving as Secretary of State cost her votes among other categories of voters. 

Trump also won 61% of votes cast by people serving in the military and 58% of the Protestant/Christian vote and 52% of the Catholic vote. 

On the other hand, Clinton fared much better among Jewish voters and atheists. 

Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’s (pictured) popularity stems from the anger many Americans feel against globalisation and international trade deals, the corrupt Washington system and growing inequality

Why did they vote for Trump? 

The popularity of Trump – and Bernie Sanders – stems from the anger many Americans feel against globalisation and international trade deals, the corrupt Washington system and growing inequality. 

The exit polls found that 38% voted for change while only 22% voted for experience.

Among Clinton supporters, experience and judgment were the most important factors, while among Trump supporters, it was all about change.

Despite being a realty TV star and billionaire with close ties to both major parties, lobbies and corporations, Trump portrayed himself as the anti-establishment candidate and this narrative resonated with angry voters who wanted a “strong leader who can take the country back from the rich and powerful”.

More than five in 10 voters – split almost evenly between Clinton and Trump voters – said the economy was the most important issue confronting the country. 

Terrorism, immigration and foreign policy took a backseat in many voters’ minds. But of those who said immigration was the key issue, more than 70% voted for Trump while among those who identified foreign policy as the key issue, more than 60% voted for Clinton. 

Voters who saw terrorism as the biggest concern were roughly split between the two candidates. 

While Trump might have been ridiculed for his outrageously racist and sexist comments and actions, Clinton remained highly unpopular and did not offer an alternative narrative to Trump’s bravado.   

Nearly 70% of all voters viewed Clinton as untrustworthy and dishonest. She represented the old guard and while she might have stood for extended healthcare coverage, further gun control, better wages and recognised climate change as a threat, unlike Bernie Sanders, Clinton did not offer an alternative to the failed neoliberal model.

Is this the end of the world as we know it?

Following the announcement of Trump’s victory one could have easily thought that Armageddon was imminent as social media sites were set alight by messages of fear and doom, markets tumbled and the Canadian migration portal crashed. 

Trump’s warped worldview, his denial of climate change and his racist beliefs will at best bring economic uncertainty and at worst social unrest and violence. 

But his policies are inconsistent. He has been for and against gun control, for and against abortion, for and against free trade, for and against extending healthcare coverage.

His flimsy positions on more public spending and isolationist stance will find opposition from within the Republican Party and beyond.

Trump voters could be the first to feel the full brunt of his policies, especially if he follows through on his promises to withdraw the US from the Paris climate deal, expel millions of migrants, cut taxes for the rich, remove consumer protection laws and privatise education and social security services.  

He has also vowed to repeal Obamacare and roll the clock back on abortion. His promise to introduce trade tariffs could also see the US enter into trade wars with China and economic blocs. 

However, the US is not a third-world country and Trump’s deflationary economics, xenophobia and divide-and-rule politics will be opposed by the Democrats, civil society and if necessary challenged in court at state and federal levels. 

The Democrats might be dazed and confused by the unexpected magnitude of their loss but Sanders has already warned that “if Donald Trump takes people’s anger and turns it against Muslims, Hispanics, African Americans and women, we will be his worst nightmare.”

Following Brexit and Trump’s victory, the spectre of far-right nationalism is upon us. This could only be the beginning, with far-right parties set to increase their vote in next year’s elections in France, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands and other countries. 

However, this could also embolden the left to offer an alternative narrative – something which it has not been able to do since the fall of the Berlin wall – and dethrone the unaccountable and authoritarian elites and punish the establishment without becoming hostage to misanthropic narratives like Trump’s.