Tensions high in Turkey ahead of constitutional referendum

Turkey is heading toward a historic referendum on a new political system that could change the course of its history – and it has the country divided right down the middle.

For supporters, change will bring much-needed stability. Others fear it could lead Turkey down the path of an autocratic, one-man rule by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Voters will decide on Sunday whether to approve constitutional changes that would replace the parliamentary system with a presidential one, scrapping the office of the prime minister and handing over its powers to the president.

Erdogan, who has fronted the campaign for a “yes” vote, says the proposed “Turkish style” presidential system will banish weak governments, establish an efficient state and bring prosperity to the country.

A “yes” vote would allow a set of 18 constitutional reforms that grants the president the power to appoint government ministers and senior officials, appoint half of the members in the country's highest judicial body, declare states of emergency and issue decrees.

Critics argue that will allow Erdogan – who has been in power either as prime minister or president since 2003 – to rule at least until 2029 with few checks and balances in a system where the separation of powers will be less clear-cut.

“The 18 articles foresee a very loose separation of powers,” said Ahmet Kasim Han, an associate professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul. That “unduly invests the weight of the decisions and the power of the executive on the president,” he said.

Polls suggest a neck-and-neck race for Sunday's vote.

“It's going to be a very close call and both 'yes' and 'no' are equally probable as outcomes,” Han said.

The referendum comes amid troubled times for Turkey, which has been plagued by a string of bombings, renewed violence between the government forces and Kurdish rebels and a failed coup attempt in July that resulted in a state of emergency that remains in place.

The emergency powers have permitted a widespread government crackdown that has targeted the followers of US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen – whom Turkey blames for the coup – and other government opponents. Some 100,000 people – including judges and teachers – have been dismissed, and more than 40,000 people, including journalists and opposition pro-Kurdish legislators, have been arrested. Hundreds of news outlets and non-governmental organisations have been shut down.

The country is also dealing with the war in neighboring Syria which led to an influx of some 3 million refugees. Turkey has sent troops into Syria to help opposition Syrian forces clear a border area from the threat posed by Islamic State militants.

Meanwhile, Turkey is drifting further apart from Europe, following Erdogan's recent outbursts slamming the governments in the Netherlands and Germany as “Nazis” over their restrictions on Turkish ministers' attempts to court Turkish expatriate votes.

For Erdogan, 63, a presidential system has been a long-time dream.

A prime minister for 11 years since 2003, he was elected president in 2014 for a five-year term and took a far more active role in politics than his predecessors, ruling behind the scenes despite the current constitution that requires him to be neutral.

Erdogan argues that as Turkey's first president to be directly elected by the people – instead of the parliament – he has a wider mandate than previous presidents.

If approved in the referendum, the reforms would come into effect with the next general elections slated for 2019.