How Russia underestimated Zelenskyy’s ability to forge a Ukrainian identity

“Ukraine is simply too divided to stand strong in the face of Russian aggression” – this was the assumption, both in Moscow, as well as in other parts of the world, before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Statistics show why such an assumption took root in the first place. In the 2001 Ukrainian census, 17.1% of Ukrainians identified themselves as being ethnic Russians. According to data from the same census, 67.53% of the population spoke Ukrainian, while 29.59% spoke Russian. President Zelenskyy himself comes from a Russian-speaking family.

Past voting patterns also speak for themselves. While in the 2010 election, the Western part of Ukraine voted for Yulia Tymoshenko, the East voted for Viktor Yanukovych, who eventually became the last of the pre-Euromaidan Presidents. We all know what came after that: after failing talks with the EU, Yanukovych looked towards Russia and Putin for $15 billion in loans, a deal that angered the pro-European Union western Ukrainians.

The protests that came after this deal took place would set the stage for what Ukraine is experiencing today.
Owing to the annexation of Crimea, as well as its indirect support to the Autonomous Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia seemed well-prepared for the invasion of 2022. After all, Russia had found considerable support amongst the Russian speaking population in both Crimea and the Donbas Republics when both regions declared independence.

Perhaps with a little bit of effort, the rest of Eastern Ukraine would capitulate as well, right? Wrong. As fate would have it, not all Ukrainians who speak Russian identify themselves as ethnic Russians. Secondly, the element of leadership, which was arguably absent in 2014, was also present in 2022. And Russia seemingly did not account for a President who could rally his “divided” population.

A former comedian who had been accused of being in the hands of Ukrainian oligarchs, Zelenskyy himself comes from a Jewish Russian-speaking family. Within itself, Zelenskyy’s background serves to neutralize Moscow’s messaging, including the false narrative “that Kyiv has been infiltrated by Nazis.”

All evidence pointed towards the fact that the inexperienced Zelenskyy was not well-equipped to lead Ukraine in such tumultuous times. In 2019, just after Zelenskyy had been elected, then-US President Donald Trump even tried to bully the newly elected President into opening an investigation into Hunter Biden. Given such abuse at the hands of allies, was there any reason why the Ukrainian President wouldn’t suffer the same sort of abuse in the face of enemies? Evidence, however, can be very deceiving at times. And with what we’ve seen over the past week, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine proves to be one of these times.

While other leaders escaped when their countries were invaded, Zelenskyy stayed on to fight. When the United States offered to evacuate him, he was reported as saying, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” From a predictable President with a soft response to American demands, Zelenskyy was transformed into an unpredictable Commander-in-Chief who’d do everything it takes to defend his nation.

In the face of Russian disinformation, Zelenskyy countered with selfie videos from Kyiv. Needless to say, such actions were widely successful. While Ukraine woke up to a strong Russian advance, Zelenskyy’s actions soon led to total mobilisation: both civilian and military.

Whereas the Russian advance was a strong one, it soon became clear that the Ukrainian strategy of using Turkish-made drones to disrupt Russian supply lines was paying off. In Turkish, “Bayraktar” means flag-bearer. And the Bayraktar TB2 drone is fast becoming the flag-bearer of Turkish military aviation, owing to its effective usage by the Ukrainian military.

Putin expected Ukrainian civilians to flee the country. Zelenskyy inspired them to stay and to greet the Russian advance with Molotov cocktails. In doing so, he’s managing to do something that other Ukrainian leaders have failed to for decades: to build a single and coherent Ukrainian identity, an identity that is built on the nation’s struggle for liberty and democracy.

In 2019, when he was running for President, Zelenskyy was characterized as a clown in Ukraine and abroad.

Given Zelenskyy’s ability to mobilize and inspire his population, it’s very visible that the clown will soon be the new king.