Tunisia: the land that Europe forgot

After two months of bloodshed, the successful overthrow of Ben Ali’s regime appears to have raised the curtain on a possible wave of ‘democratization’ across the Maghreb and the Middle East. But seasoned diplomats aren’t exactly holding their breath.

Ives De Barro, Malta’s former ambassador to Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, concedes that it “sent a powerful message to the rest of the Arab world.”

But he qualifies that many of the factors that contributed to the revolution’s success are in a sense unique to Tunisia: not least, the country’s rich colonial past, which he points out has more in common with Malta than with other North African states.

Referring to France’s large Tunisian community – and the fact that many of the more affluent Tunisians study in Paris – De Barro reasons that the close ties that exist between the two countries had inevitably facilitated a sense of popular disenchantment at street level.

“When French Tunisians return to their homeland to visit their relatives, it is inevitable that they will compare the standards of living between the countries,” he told MaltaToday. “And while it is true also for countries like Algeria and Morocco, it is not the case with Libya or with other countries in the Middle East.”

He adds that bilingualism and tourism have also played a part: Tunisia having been long considered one of the more cosmopolitan of North African destinations.

It is a view shared also by George Doublesin, Malta’s former ambassador to Libya and Saudi Arabia, who describes Tunisia as a country culturally closer to the West than many others in the region. All this contrasts sharply with the extreme poverty one encounters the moment the largely French-owned coastal resorts are left behind.

Visitors are often surprised by the sudden transition from the five-star hotels of Hammamet or Sousse, to the squalor of inland villages. With popular discontent rife, all that was needed was the revelation of corruption and opulence in the now infamous US cables from Tunisia – exposed to the world by Wikileaks – for the disaffection to boil over into violence.

“To tell the truth it has been coming for a while now, even if it was difficult to see from the outside,” De Barro adds. “It’s like a volcano simmering quietly beneath the surface for years. When it erupts, it erupts suddenly.”

The eruption is still under way, and its long-term consequences have yet to take any discernible shape. De Barro notes that the worst appears to be over – schools, shops and the university are expected to open as usual tomorrow – but the immediate future is uncertain.

“It is difficult to say,” he replies when asked what form the incoming government is likely to take. “It is clear from the recent developments that he people will not tolerate members of the old guard. But that doesn’t leave very much to choose from. Too many of the likely candidates were involved, one way or another with the previous government.”

European ambivalence

Nor is it clear what political faction, if any, the ‘West’ will support. Indeed the entire uprising has exposed a certain closeness between the EU and the disgraced dictator, Ben Ali.

De Barro hints as much when he comments: “Europe didn’t help much. It could have done much, much more.”

He is not alone in this view. Last week, External Relations Commissioner Catherine Ashton herself complained about the EU’s failure to even comment about the crisis: a failure apparently prompted by strong resistance from several member states… including Malta.

According to the EU Observer, Malta’s motivation in resisting such statements was its reliance on “North African autocracies” to stem the tide of illegal immigration. Other countries such as France have historical ties with the Ben Ali regime, while Italy and Spain have long-standing commercial agreements to consider.

Even Malta has vested interests: a number of businesses and factories, run by a local population amounting to around 120 citizens.

But to be fair to all parties there are other considerations, too. George Doublesin hints that one possible consequence of long-term instability is be a move towards religious extremism.

This may explain one of the Jasmine Revolution’s less savoury aspects: the fact that, while publicly lauding the overthrow of an undemocratic regime, many Western countries secretly supported that regime… as they do all North Africa’s secular dictatorships which have resisted the spread of Islamic fundamentalism.

Doublesin however argues that the emergence of a fundamentalist Tunisian state is unlikely. “One of the lessons to be learnt from this development – both for the incoming government of Tunisia and for the surrounding countries – is the importance of allowing free speech.”

Bearing in mind that attempts to suppress the uprising actually made it worse, the point seems to be that governing by brutality alone is no longer a guarantee of power in the region.

Doublesin is also confident that the political reality of Tunisia militates against a return to wholesale dictatorship. “There are forces in the country which will probably have a say in the formation of the new government: trade unions are a very strong presence in Tunisia, and will no doubt have a role. Lawyers, too, enjoy a very high public profile.”

This in turn suggests that the traditional secular model – i.e., a President propped up only by the army, with occasional lip-service paid to democracy – is not very likely either.

However, whatever emerges from the Jasmine Revolution, the country’s biggest earner is bound to suffer. Tourism currently accounts for 11.5% of the country’s jobs, and many of those jobs are now threatened by a diversion of package tours to other Mediterranean countries… foremost among which, Malta.

Ironically, then, the same industry that fuelled the popular uprising in the beginning, may also end up defining its limitations.